Mon. Oct 5th, 2026

Skill or Luck? Madness Takes a Bit of Both

She won with her heart. And a bit of help from her favorite red-nosed reindeer.

It was March of 1999 and my mom had been working as a photojournalist at the St. Petersburg Times (now the Tampa Bay Times) for more than 20 years.

She had never cared much for college hoops at all. I’m fairly certain she couldn’t quote even one line from Hoosiers.

Nonetheless, this fateful year she was pressured by some employees to enter a downtown bureau March Madness bracket pool. She can’t remember how many souls she stomped, “40ish?” she says. Maybe more, maybe less. She remembers the pride.

She was matched up against sports writers and business editors, men and women with means of research at their fingertips. She chose based on the pretty colors of the uniforms, the unique qualities in their names.

“What’s that school?” she asks me, “Gonzago? Gonzaga? I liked that one.”

The 1999 NCAA Tournament saw Gonzaga come out of the woodwork and establish themselves as a mid-major powerhouse. The 10th-seeded Bulldogs reached the Elite Eight and the rest of this March Madness fairy tale is history.

“Heading into the end, I was neck and neck with this sports editor,” she says. “I was playing with this sports guy and I was nothing. I had no clue about these scores or these teams or where they were.”

At the end of day, most pools come down to who correctly picks the champion. In 1999, Richard “Rip” Hamilton would lead the University of Connecticut Huskies to their first ever NCAA Championship, a victory over nine-point favorite Duke.

How did my Mom, of all people, have the clairvoyance to pick UConn you ask?

“Well basically,” she says with a laugh, “I picked UConn because it reminded me of Yukon Cornelius… (the character) From Rudolph the movie.”

Sometimes you win because you’re the sports editor of a nationally recognized newspaper, and sometimes you win because you get lucky.

You’ll learn that it is more often than not, the latter.

—

As you prepare to take part in your own March Madness bracket pools, take a couple hints. Most important of all, though, don’t take this whole thing too seriously.

It’s like betting on dice; if you win, be happy with your winnings. But if you lose, just be happy you weren’t dumb enough to bet more.

Some tips:

Read The Right Stuff – Many college students spend so much time reading and researching teams and statistics that they don’t spend enough time studying the right things.

It’s much more effective to read up on your pool’s specific scoring rules and the odds of upsets happening in whichever rounds, than actually researching each individual team.

You’re not a professional scout but you can still win your pool if you learn the concept of playing the system.

If you get significantly more points for 12/5 upsets than you do for 10/7’s then bet those more often.

You may hit less, but you’ll be rewarded by big gains when you drill even a few.

Vegas Knows Best – Honestly, this might be the only portion of my life that this rule applies to, but Vegas really does know best.

People get paid to make odds that are extremely accurate and reflective of up-to-date information. This means you don’t have to research if Murray St.’s key guard has a bum knee, and then perform ridiculous equations to calculate how it will affect his team. They do this for you.

If Florida St. is favored by 15 over a team, then there is legitimate reason behind it. That doesn’t mean follow Vegas for all of your picks, it just means it gives you an accurate depiction of how close the teams are when trying to pick upsets.

Be Weird – Guess what? You are not the only person in your pool who thinks Kentucky is really good this year. Pick accordingly.

By picking two, three and even four seeded teams to reach the Final Four, you give yourself a bit smaller chance at being correct on all fronts, but if you are, the picks will be more unique to you.

This means you’re getting points where your competitors aren’t. Remember that if you’re in a close pool, similar picks can be deadly.

The last thing you want is to watch your team win and realize that half the remaining pool picked them too.

Separation from the pack is key.

Miles Parks can be reached at minaret.sports@gmail.com.

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