Hurricane Melissa crosses Jamaica in just the span of a few hours. Photo Courtesy of GOES imagery: CSU/CIRA & NOAA.
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It takes a multitude of conditions to create a powerful hurricane. The most notable Southeastern cyclone of the season, Hurricane Melissa, steered clear of Florida. In accordance with the past 171 years, Florida had a 70% chance of receiving a landfalling hurricane. The quiet nature of this season was a direct result of the direction of Melissa’s reign.
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By Amber Louis
TAMPA, Fla. — As of today, the Atlantic hurricane season has recorded no landfalling hurricanes in the 2025 season. From June 1 to Nov. 30, Florida, the state with the most recorded hurricanes, braces for potential impact as the waters of the Atlantic and Caribbean stabilize at relatively warm temperatures.
The state’s common pattern of receiving tropical cyclones is influenced by its geography and climate. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a specific recipe is involved in forming a hurricane. It calls for warm waters, pre-existing conditions such as a tropical wave and thunderstorm, as well as low wind shear.
Following the destruction and devastation of Hurricane Milton in Oct. 2024, the Hillsborough County community is still recovering more than a year later. This season, Florida remained hurricane-free.
Category 5 Hurricane Melissa didn’t reach Florida. Melissa, covered live by The Minaret, grew from its tropical storm developments on Oct. 25 up until the first signs of recovery began on Oct. 30, primarily striking Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and trailed off in Bermuda.
Dr. Nicholas Grondin, the University of Tampa’s hazards climatologist and assistant professor of environmental studies, described the conditions that fell in line to cause such a storm.
“The story with Melissa was a story of water. Hurricanes get their fuel from hot ocean water, ranging from 75 degrees to the mid-80s. The Caribbean Ocean in October is where the hottest water in the Northern and Western hemispheres is found,” Grondin said.
Grondin compared water for a hurricane to fuel for a car. If you have high-quality gas in your vehicle, it will perform a lot better. The same applies to water temperature and a hurricane’s potential for growing in its magnitude.
Humidity and wind shear, the change of speed and direction, also contribute to the development of a hurricane. According to the NOAA, a large difference in wind speed and direction around or near the storm can weaken it, while a consistently low wind shear could strengthen it.
A hurricane’s location is controlled by one factor: the arrival of a cold front.
“When it comes to movement, storms will be dictated by the winds around them,” Grondin said. “One reason why hurricanes seem to frequently rotate over the open Atlantic is that there’s an upper-level, high-pressure feature that’s always there to direct the storms around it.”
Despite the lack of storms, a different elemental surprise came across the peninsula, particularly for Tampa residents. When a record-breaking 38-degree cold morning on Tuesday, Nov. 11, arrived in the city, it was in direct correlation to the atmospheric pressure that previously pushed Melissa south toward the Greater Antilles.
Within the storm itself, meteorologists could potentially place Melissa as one of the strongest Category 5 hurricanes in history for its outstanding statistics. The minimum central pressure reached 892 millibars, which placed the storm as one of the most intense storms in the history of the North Atlantic basin.
The system that determines warm and cool patterns of natural climate in the tropics, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is given in El Niño and La Niña advisories. This season was La Niña, but it was notably abnormal. With weakened conditions throughout the season, irregular patterns of temperatures and precipitation followed in the United States.
“In terms of ENSO, this has been a weird year in the Atlantic region,” Grondin said. “We’re in a weak La Niña, when generally a La Niña supports more hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, and generally, not always, they form stronger.”
This season is expected to have about 13 named tropical storms, which is a relatively low number compared to the recent past. The other metrics meteorologists examined this year maintained a typical stability, apart from one outlying piece of data. Meteorologists have received three Category five hurricanes between North and South America, which hasn’t happened since 2005.
“Is it climate change or natural variability? Well, probably a little bit of both,” Grondin said. “To anyone who says that it’s one hundred percent climate change, I think they’re being too quick in jumping to conclusions.”
Analyzing the patterns of climate systems over time can result in some unusual activity once it comes to the development of hurricanes. Even though this year was expected to have lower storm activity, the magnitude of the ones that struck significantly impacted millions of people.