Despite sweeping Republican gains in the 2010 midterms, the path to the White House in 2012 appears to be a difficult proposition.
Unseating an incumbent president has been historically difficult, especially during war time and in an improving economy—both of which describe the state of the Obama administration. This is perhaps why no major candidate has officially entered the fray, despite their strong hints.
Consider that in 2007, all major candidates except for Fred Thompson had declared their candidacy by March. Despite the hesitancy, it’s time to begin looking at the prospective Republican field. The road to Tampa, the site of the 2012 Republican Convention, remains wide open, due to the lack of a clear front-runner.
Following is a partial list of likely candidates with analysis of their strengths and weaknesses as they head into the primary season and, potentially, the general election.
Newt Gingrich:
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich formed his exploratory committee in early March. Gingrich has the advantage of strong name recognition.
Besides being a former Speaker of the House, Gingrich has stayed in the public eye through involvement in think tanks like The Hoover Institute, and as a frequent contributor on Fox News Channel. However,
Gingrich has recently had to deal with inconsistent statements on the conflict in Libya.
On March 7, Gingrich advocated that a no-fly zone be instituted “this evening,” and then on March 23 conversely said he “would not have intervened.”
Sarah Palin:
Former Alaska Governor and vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin has been widely rumored to run after resigning from her governorship of Alaska. She’s kept a high public profile through frequent television appearances as a Fox News contributor and by starring in the reality series Sarah Palin’s Alaska.
Despite high name recognition, Sarah Palin is disadvantaged by the “negative” factor.
A recent Bloomberg News poll found 60 percent of Americans view Palin unfavorably.
Only 28 percent of respondents viewed her favorably. This translates to a 32-point net negative, which would be tough to overcome in the general election, not to mention the primaries.
Rudy Giuliani:
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani recently expressed that he planned to run if he found the Republican field too far right and unelectable.
“If all we are faced with are candidates that are too far right so that they can’t win the general election, then that’s when I’d reconsider doing it,” Giuliani told Republicans in Palm Beach on March 22. At least for now, Giuliani has the credentials to back this up.
Giuliani is the only prospective Republican candidate polls show would beat Obama if the election was held today—51 percent to 49 percent.
Mitt Romney:
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has been consistently polling in the top tier of Republican hopefuls, despite not having formed an exploratory committee.
During the 2010 midterms, Romney proved his fundraising skills.
Romney actively campaigned for Republican candidates and raised more money than any other prospective presidential candidate.
Romney’s drawbacks include his Mormonism, which alienates certain segments of the religious right—a key Republican constituency.
Former Senator Rick Santorum, also a rumored presidential hopeful, expressed another concern over a potential Romney/Obama match-up. Referring to Massachusetts’ universal health care laws, enacted while Romney was governor, Santorum said, “The issues, unfortunately, don’t line up particularly well for Governor Romney this time, particularly with health care being front and center on the stage.”
Since Massachusetts’ health care law is similar to the the recent federal health care overhaul, Romney will have to reconcile his record as governor with his platform of repealing the Affordable Care Act.
Check in next week for more candidate analysis.
Micheal Angelo Rumore can be reached at michealangelorumore@gmail.com.