Trying to predict the Heisman winner in October is like trying to play darts with your eyes closed. You might get a few on the board but you’re probably not going to hit it in the bull’s eye.
However, like most other premature prediction articles, we’ll give it a shot, and come December, hope to say I told you so.
Last year, Johnny Manziel became the first freshman ever to win the award and with it came an unprecedented amount of celebrity and scrutiny. Manziel was a national star at 18 years old. He was flying out to hang with Drake and sitting courtside in Miami during the Heat’s title run.
Like most young people thrown in to stardom, Manziel had difficulty learning how to handle it. He was constantly criticized during the offseason for his behavior and unapologetic attitude, which finally boiled over with him being kicked out of the Manning Passing Academy in July.
Despite his tumultuous offseason, Manziel has come out this season and quickly reminded us why he was the first freshman ever to win the Heisman trophy last year, throwing for nearly 1500 yards and accounting for 17 total touchdowns through the first five weeks of the season. This is including a monster game where he put up 464 yards and five touchdowns against the great Nick Saban run Alabama defense.
However, Las Vegas currently has Manziel second in odds for winning the Heisman at 5/1 behind Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota at 9/2.
Mariota has thrown for fewer yards and touchdowns than Manziel, which is surprising when you consider that Oregon hasn’t scored under 55 points in a game this year.
Manziel leads Mariota in nearly every statistical category except interceptions, which could lead some to believe that Mariota holds the advantage over Manziel for reasons outside of football.
Then again, Oregon has outscored their opponents 239 to 43 through the first four weeks, allowing for Mariota to watch several fourth quarters from the Ducks sideline.
Oregon and Mariota won’t face a real challenge until Oct. 12 when they face Top 25 ranked Washington, who has a possible Heisman sleeper of their own in running back Bishop Sankey.
Sankey is the true definition of a workhorse. The Huskies tailback has 607 yards on 104 carries and 6 total touchdowns through the first four weeks, including 40 carries against Arizona.
Sankey, a junior from Spokane, Washington has accounted for at least 160 yards in three of four games this year, including a 208-yard performance on the road against Illinois. He chipped in 77 yards on 4 carries before being lifted in a 56-0 blowout against Idaho State.
Barring injury, Sankey’s aggressive running style and number of carries per game could very well give him the numbers needed to be a Heisman finalist.
Another finalist hopeful at the beginning of the year was tenacious defensive end Jadeveon Clowney of South Carolina. After being named an All-American and receiving the Hendricks Award as the best defensive end in the country, Clowney admitted prior to the season that he planned on being a Heisman finalist this year.
Most known for his jarring hit on Michigan’s Vincent Smith in last season’s Outback Bowl, Clowney is unequivocally one of the most exciting defensive players college football has seen in a while.
However, bone spurs in his right foot have greatly slowed him thus far, turning him into a shell of the player he was a year ago. Adding insult to injury, Clowney has been plagued with bruised ribs that caused him to miss a game against Kentucky.
In absence of a miracle, Clowney will likely not be making the trip to New York in December.
Quarterbacks Tajh Boyd of Clemson, Teddy Bridgewater of Louisville and Aaron Murray of Georgia round out the top five candidates in the minds of oddsmakers in Las Vegas.
It’s always possible a relatively under the radar player strings together a run of great performances in the second half of the season, and rides the momentum to the Heisman trophy. But don’t be surprised if Johnny Manziel is standing there, accepting the trophy in December as the first back-to-back winner since Archie Griffin in 1974-75.
Nathan Krohn can be reached at nathan.krohn@spartans.ut.edu.