North Korean leader Kim Jong-un announced on March 11 that his country had nullified the 1953 armistice that officially ended the Korean War. The armistice dismissal was in response to recent global sanctions against North Korea, which were put in place after they conducted a third nuclear test. These sanctions were backed by China, viewed by many to be North Korea’s only real ally. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea ramped up its posturing by declaring that it would conduct nuclear strikes against the United States, targeting Washington D.C. and other vital areas. On March 15, the U.S. announced that it was strengthening its ballistic missile defense systems across the Pacific, with domestic beef-ups focusing in Alaska and California. The increase in defense systems have been planned since at least August of last year, but the recent threats by North Korea gave the U.S. a reason to publicly announce its intentions.
Some experts have concluded that the DPRK provocation is nothing more than a desperate attempt to spark talks with the United States and assert its independence from China. However, I believe that this may be real and that North Korea could be preparing for a hostile strike against South Korea, and ultimately drag the United States into a much more serious conflict than its current one with Iraq or Afghanistan.
According to a March 12 article in The New York Times by Choe San-hun, North Korea had “begun evacuating citizens into tunnels with emergency provisions and putting military camouflage on buses and trucks.” These moves have been viewed by the South Korean Defense Ministry as an attempt to feed a “war fever,” and according to officials, have been used in the past to bolster support amongst their citizens and unify the country.
North Korea is struggling as a nation, dealing with widespread poverty and famine, as well as an increasing dependence on China as a trade partner. China’s huge investment in North Korea has begun to transform the weakening country into a province of northeastern China. Jong-un is trying to fight this collapse, which seems by many to be inevitable. These internal issues are cited as the reason behind Jong-un’s recent outbursts of aggression.
According to the International Business Times, Beijing has recently approved a bullet train network between Dandong and Hunchun, the two regions closest to the North Korean border. In addition to the new rail network, which is scheduled to be completed in 2015, China has already been working on another network that connects Jilin and Hunchun, “the gateway to a key Special Economic Zone in North Korea.” This project, which began in 2010, is set to be finished in 2013. According to the IBT, “China is also planning to build five more bridges to North Korea apart from the 11 existing ones.” Reports say that China is interested in expanding their trade with North Korea in lieu of the newly appointed economic sanctions, but there is also speculation that the increase in links between the two countries would be strategically vital for China in the event of any military action.
In an op-ed by Sheila Miyoshi Jager published in the New York Times, Jager cites the very real dependence North Korea has on China. Jager writes, “By 2011, total Chinese investment in North Korea exceeded $6 billion. China, in fact, now provides an estimated 90 percent of North Korea’s energy, 80 percent of its consumer goods and 45 percent of the country’s food.” Jager believes that it is only a matter of time before the North Korean regime falls to China, and that the recent threats made by Jong-un are nothing more than desperate rants and a feeble attempt to convey self-determination. Jager writes, “It would be a mistake to read into them anything more than the noises of a dying regime that clearly recognizes the writing on the wall.”
While some experts dismiss North Korea’s threats and actions as merely the death throes of a dwindling nation, countries with vested interests in stability like South Korea and the United States are not taking them so lightly. According to Sang-hun, South Korean President Park Geun-hye “has also issued tough statements, saying that if the North proceeded with nuclear attacks, its government would be ‘erased from the earth.’”
In tandem with South Korea, the United States has also declared that it is not taking any chances. General C. Robert Kehler, commander of United States Strategic Command, the administrative branch of all U.S. nuclear forces, testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee that “deterring North Korea from acting irrationally is our number one priority.” Gen. Kehler went on to say that he has devised a whole list of options in response to an attack that he is ready to lay out for President Obama if the need arises. Kehler said, “Whatever [the president] chooses to use in response to a North Korean act, I believe we can make it available to him.”
In addition to planning for the worst, the United States has been proactive in the defense of their western borders. According to an article on CNN, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel recently announced that the U.S. will install 14 additional missile interceptors in Alaska and California, bringing the total up to 44. “The reason that we are doing what we are doing and the reason we are advancing our program here for homeland security is to not take any chances, is to stay ahead of the threat and to assure any contingency,” Hagel said.
While the United States has just gone public with its intentions, the plan to fortify missile defenses has apparently been in the works since August 2012. According to an article published on the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the U.S. had planned to deploy a sophisticated radar system in southern Japan that could monitor both North Korea and China and alert friendly nations to any missile launches from certain parts of the countries. This radar would work similarly to one that the United States had deployed to northern Japan six years prior, and would provide more complete coverage of the region.
While the United States has been taking steps towards a more effective missile defense network in the west for quite some time, the recent provocations by North Korea have forced the country to speed up its operations.
I believe that the United States must respond strongly to the recent threats made by North Korea, and that the recent decisions to bolster their western missile defenses are a good start to doing so. North Korea may be struggling, but their military has never suffered budget cuts, and is the only facet of the nation that receives adequate supplies. Although some have seen the recent posturing of Jong-un as nothing more than steam blowing, others believe that his threats follow a trend and are paving the way for a military attack.
According to an article by Foster Klug in The Huffington Post, North Korea has attacked South Korea four separate times immediately following the joint training operations that take place every year between South Korea and the U.S. Klug wrote, “Bloody sea battles in 1999, 2002 and 2009, and North Korea’s artillery bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island in 2010, took place weeks after annual drills by South Korea and the United States, Chon [an analyst for S. Korea] said.” According to Klug, Chon believes that a North Korean attack is coming, and soon.
If hostile action occurs between North and South Korea, the United States will be forced into a war, whether or not it wants to be involved. Buried within the paperwork of the 1953 armistice is a clause that forces the U.S. to act for South Korea. Klug writes, “If war broke out, the United States would assume control of South Korea’s military because of the countries’ decades-old alliance that began with the U.S.-led military response to North Korean invaders in 1950.”
I fear two separate things. The first is with our country already heavily involved in the war in Afghanistan, involvement in another war, which would be fought on a much larger scale, would stretch our already combat-fatigued military extremely thin. Our country has been involved in at least one war for the last 12 years, and jumping straight into another conflict would not only exhaust our troops, it would bury our country further in debt. Both of these would harm our nation, and possibly lead to much more serious consequences.
The other issue is North Korea’s close ties with China. While China backed the U.N. economic sanctions against North Korea, I believe that they have far too much invested in North Korea to see it fall under the control of South Korea, and, by relation, the United States. I believe that in the event of a full scale war, China would have to become involved, if only to defend its economic interests in the region. While North Korea has successfully tested nuclear weapons, it is unclear what their exact capabilities are. China, on the other hand, is a nuclear giant and is known to have a huge arsenal of nuclear warheads at its disposal. The result of a war between the U.S. and China would be catastrophic, and I believe it is safe to assume that millions of lives would be lost.
I am hopeful that Jong-un will back down from his threats, and that some form of stability will return to the Korean peninsula.