They’re young and talented. Intimidating and charming. Fun-loving killers. The Rays 2012 rotation is nasty and people are starting to take notice. “If you thought they were good last year, then watch out,” writes ESPN writer Jayson Stark. “Now that you’re looking at it without bias,” said former Red Sox manager, Terry Francona, as quoted by the Tampa Bay Times, “my goodness, they’ve done some tremendous things.”
Things are looking up around the Rays clubhouse these days. Gone are the nights of Victor Zambrano and Steve Trachsel. Bye-bye Dewon Brazelton, hello David Price. It was nice knowing you Casey Fossum, but it’s Matt Moore time.
At this point, there’s really no question; this is the best starting pitching Tampa Bay has ever seen. Here’s a quick refresher course on the five Rays starters as the season is beginning to build some momentum.
James Shields: Mr. High-roller. On a team perennially strapped for cash, Shields is the highest paid player on the roster. Raking in $8 million (almost double the salary of Evan Longoria,) the Rays expect Shield to make a difference from Opening day through October. The talent isn’t really Shields’ main draw: it’s the consistency. This is a pitcher who hasn’t thrown less than 200 innings in a season since 2006. That means going five innings even on a bad day, it means staying off the disabled list, it means carrying the team from game one through game 162.
Shields’ key pitch is his change-up. As a pitcher who sits in the low-90s with his fastball, Shields relies on deceptiveness from the rest of his repertoire to put hitters away. That’s where his “half-circle” change-up comes in. Having developed the grip of the pitch in 2004, Shields has tweaked it to become one of one of the most unique and untouchable pitches in baseball. In 2011, according to ESPN Stats & Info, Shields threw off-speed pitches to hitters in two-strike counts 77 percent of the time: 35 percent of swings on those pitches were swings and misses. Opposing hitters know what’s coming on 0-2 or 1-2. That doesn’t mean they can hit it.
David Price: Two season ago, David Price finished second-place in the A.L. Cy Young race. One season later, as his team’s record improved, he finished the year 12-13 with an ERA almost an entire run higher. What went wrong?
First off, it’s important to establish that although his large stats took a nose-dive, quite a few of his peripheral stats actually improved. He pitched 16 more innings in 2011 compare to the season before while striking out 30 more batters and walking 16 less. His WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) slightly improved as well.
How does all this add up to a losing record? Simple: The long bomb and some bad luck. Price gave up seven more homers than he did the previous year which will tack on runs to your average quite quickly. He also allowed an opponent’s batting average almost 10 points higher than he did the year before (but which was consistent with the rest of his career norms.)
Put simply, David Price is an elite pitcher with an electric fastball. 2010 might’ve been a career year for him: he may repeat it, he may not. But either way, with some run support, he is at the very least a 15-win pitcher.
Jeremy Hellickson: The Rays won their franchise’s second Rookie of the Year last season when Jeremy Hellickson lived up to all the hype. Touted by Baseball America as the number six prospect in the country after the 2010 season, Hellickson made an impressive showing in his first full season in a major league uniform. He went 13-10 with a 2.95 ERA.
Similar to James Shields, Hellickson relies heavily on his change-up to get rid of hitters. The way their pitches work though is different. Due to grip difference, Shields’ change-up falls toward the bottom of the zone and usually toward a batter’s feet, inducing a swing that completely misses the location of where the ball ends up. Hellickson’s is more reliant on arm speed and deception, as the ball doesn’t drop as much as it surprises the hitter. Swings look mighty awkward when you’re expecting 92 MPH and you get 83.
Matt Moore: This kid’s stuff is just plain scary. Between Double A Montgomery and Triple A Durham in 2011, Moore went 12-3 with a 1.92 ERA. He struck out 210 hitters compared to 46 walks. Once he made his big league debut though, that’s when he really shined, striking out 11 Yankees in five innings in his first start.
Moore’s bread and butter is velocity change. His fastball averages a bit under 96 MPH according to Fangraphs.com, but it can reach 98 or 99 if he needs a big punch-out. His secondary pitches, a plus change-up and a plus curveball average 86 MPH and 83 MPH respectively.
The Rays locked Moore up long-term last season in a contract that’s comparable to the team-friendly deal Evan Longoria signed not too long ago. If Moore can stay healthy and maintain his velocity, he seems a favorite for the Rookie of the Year this season and it looks like he’ll be a key to many Rays rotations to come.
Jeff Niemann: The six-foot nine-inch fifth man in this Rays rotation is a sort of wild card. Jeff Niemann was drafted by the Rays with the fourth overall pick in the 2004 draft out of Rice University, and has had a truckload of hype following him ever since. The right-hander is good, but he hasn’t yet found greatness but for a few moments: There was that two-hit shutout against Toronto in 2010, the 10-strikeout complete game in Boston last year, or even back in ’08 when he allowed just a run in six innings to win his first MLB start.
The Rays seem confused on how to treat Niemann. In an organization with this much depth, trades have been discussed. He’s good enough to be a number two or number three starter if he were moved to almost any team. To compare, the San Diego Padres’ third starter, Clayton Richard has a career ERA of 4.16 but he plays in a much more pitcher-friendly park while Niemann’s posted a 4.17 career earned run average.
The trouble is, the Rays have other stars coming up with more consistency in their mechanics and with less medical history. A 4.17 is good enough for fifth right now, but for how long? At less than $3 million a year, it makes sense for the Rays to keep Niemann around in hopes that he’ll fulfill his giant potential, but once free agency creeps up, it would be surprising to see him not look for a more stable environment that doesn’t have all these youngsters breathing down his neck.
Miles Parks can be reached at minaret.sports@gmail.com