You drafted Kansas City Chiefs’ running back Jamaal Charles with your first pick. In week 2, he gets injured and is out for the remainder of the season. What now?
Some 27 million Americans participate in fantasy sports, and more than 20 million of those people are geared specifically towards football, according to estimates made by the Fantasy Sports Trade Association in August. Rest assured numerous fantasy football owners were beside themselves when Charles, their star player, was carted off the field after tearing his ACL. Get used to incidents like these, because they are just the beginning of the obstacles to overcome during a fantasy season.
There are strategies of playing the game victoriously. Those who are new to fantasy football may need to be clued in, while those who claim to be masters of it don’t know everything there is to know.
… Are you ready for some football?
It’s a Volatile Game
Aaron Bresky, a 29-year-old Tampa, Fla., native currently living in Braintree, Mass., has been playing fantasy football for six years. In 2009, he was champion of two of his leagues and accumulated $1,500 in winnings. He then won a league last year. Currently, he is a member of four leagues. While he certainly wins a lot, there are still the multiple times that he doesn’t. Winning isn’t easy.
“It’s just like regular football—injuries happen and you kind of get screwed,” Bresky explained. “It happens all the time so it’s hard to come back from that.”
While injuries happen no matter what, fantasy football changes each year as the NFL changes. Matt Camp, a senior writer for fantasyguru.com who also hosts two fantasy football-related shows on Sirius/XM Radio, explained this notion.
“You’re seeing more guys who are gonna come out of nowhere because the league has evolved,” said Camp, who has been a fantasy football competitor for 15 years and is currently in six leagues. “You’re seeing roles in football become more important.”
Running backs are a perfect example of what Camp is talking about. As he explained, there are only a handful of guys who get most of the touches in the backfield for their teams. Nowadays, we are seeing more two-headed and even three-headed rushing attacks, and that is something you as a fantasy player must adapt to, whether it be through your drafting strategies or waiver wire pickups.
To help you along your way throughout the fantasy season, let’s take a look at some keys to playing the game properly—and staying on top.
“Ouch, my leg!” –Injuries
What happens when guys like Charles, Indianapolis’ Peyton Manning or Tennessee’s Kenny Britt go down for most of the season? Tom Krasniqi, columnist for fantistics.com and host of the Culpepper Kurland Fantasy Football Hour Friday nights on ESPN 1040 in Tampa, has an answer. “Usually when a superstar gets hurt, the first thing I do, the first question I ask myself is, ‘who’s his backup, and is that guy going to be somewhat competent in taking his place?’”
In the case of Manning, you look at Kerry Collins—38 and now on the sideline concussed—and Curtis Painter—inexperienced at best—and must look elsewhere. Krasniqi said to explore all options, whether it’s going to someone competent on your bench, making a waiver wire pickup or finding a trading partner.
Someone competent on your bench would hopefully mean you drafted wisely and have a solid NFL starter who was a mid-to-late round fantasy pick (Joe Flacco is a fairly reliable second quarterback, or how about those who got lucky when drafting Cam Newton in the last few rounds?)
When players get injured but may not necessarily miss the whole season, sometimes it could be worth keeping them around. Whether or not your league has an injured reserve spot per roster, an elite player coming back from injury or off suspension (2010’s Vincent Jackson, anyone?) could help to bolster your team for a playoff run.
Twitter or Death
Checking out news on your league page and watching Sportscenter isn’t going to cut it anymore. Camp put it as simple as possible for the fantasy faithful. “If you’re not on Twitter and you play fantasy football, you’re gonna lose.”
With all kinds of news outlets on Twitter, it is essential for you to keep up to date on the goings on with not just your players on their real life teams, but backups and guys who may be primed for a waiver wire pickup.
And while national reporters like ESPN’s Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen are credible sources to follow, you should keep track of teams’ beat writers as well. They’ll give you the hometown scoop that the national guys don’t have. Along with that, follow as many Twitter accounts related to pro teams—their official page, public relations page, or the actual players’ Twitter accounts. You will get a better feel for what’s going on with that player and his team.
“Twitter has put fantasy football into a whole different universe,” Camp said. “You have to be on top of this news as it comes out because if you’re not, somebody else will be and they’ll get to the waiver wire first and make the move you could’ve made.”
Camp has gone from his middle school days of tracking statistics by hand in the newspaper, to now being active on Twitter. He both fields questions from fantasy owners and does his own due diligence by studying up. Times have changed; time to get on Twitter.
Bresky himself actually is not active on Twitter. However, he uses another online outlet that is the next best option—rotoworld.com. This website is a fantasy sports haven, football included. Bresky likes it because it has beat writers’ Twitter feeds coupled with blurbs on player news and updates.
Depth is Good … to a Point
“There’s a point where you say bench points aren’t going to get me anywhere,” Camp contended.
Sure, bench depth is great, especially when dealing with injuries or injuries-waiting-to-happen (we’re looking at you, Steven Jackson), but there’s a point where it can cause you to over think things. There’s no need in having to decide between starting Phillip Rivers or Matthew Stafford every week, because sometimes, as Camp asserted, you will make the wrong decision. Explore your options—perhaps package two players together in return for one elite player to bolster that starting lineup.
At the same time, though, Camp warns about unloading too many good bench players.
“You need to have contingency plans. I don’t think you can assume anything anymore in fantasy. You need to have depth.”
D-Fence
Defense may win championships in reality, but this is fantasy. Stop worrying about drafting a defense in the early-to-mid rounds of a draft. Krasniqi said that if an elite defense is out there in round 12 or later, then go for it. Otherwise, there’s a wiser option. “If you’re not fortunate enough to get a [top defense], I would play the waiver wire every week and I would play matchups.”
This takes a bit of extra work each week as you scramble to find a defense worthy of giving the start, but it essentially saves you a draft pick. You may even end up picking a defense that turns out to be halfway decent and worth keeping. Better yet, that draft pick in the 10th round could have ended up being used on a fantasy stud/sleeper. So stop trying to be “the steel curtain” circa the ‘70s; position players trump defense in fantasy football nearly every time.
It Takes Two to Tango (and Trade)
As both Camp and Krasniqi alluded to, always staying active and looking to make some kind of move to help your team is key. Keep your lips sealed while doing so, though.
“Do you play cards, like Texas Hold ‘Em? You never want to reveal your hand,” Krasniqi said. “You try and keep things close to the vest. You try and keep things basic because a lot of guys will try and pick your brain. They’ll try [to] figure out what you’re trying to do before you do it.”
Instead, you should be the one to prey on owners with clear holes in their team. You can take advantage of a fellow league member in a number of different ways—if he gets emotional and overreacts about a star player having a poor week, go in and swoop that player away for less value than he’s worth; if you know a league member is say, an avid Cowboys’ fan, perhaps you can sell high on a Tony Romo or Dez Bryant; maybe the easiest of all, prey on a team that just lost one of its top picks (a la Jamaal Charles or Peyton Manning).
But by all means, don’t start making trades because you think all the cool kids are doing it.
“To make a trade [just] to make a trade is going to kill you,” Camp warned. “Nine times out 10, it’s going to come back to bite you.”
Another nugget of useful information: you can sell higher on a player who may be having a down year, but who has a big name. As he continues to age and lose productivity, Tennessee’s Chris Johnson will probably never be the same player he was, but remind your trading partner about his near record-breaking season in 2009. The name “Chris Johnson” is more valuable than the actual player.
Parting Thoughts
Playing the game successfully means understanding football and putting in extra effort. Perhaps most importantly, though, you must constantly be active.
“Whether you’re in dead last, whether you’re at .500 or whether you’re in first place and beating up everybody, you can never rest on your laurels,” Camp asserted.
The difference between an informed, successful fantasy player and one that’s not is understanding that an injury to Peyton Manning will affect essentially all position players in that offense. It’s realizing that a big-name player who’s off to a slow start has a tough schedule ahead, and acting accordingly.
But with all this information and all these tips, the difference between a good fantasy football player and a bad one can also come down to just pure luck.
“I’d be lying if I didn’t tell you that luck wasn’t a big part of this,” Camp admitted.
Quick Tips:
“If you have a really solid team all around, then I’m waiting for people to come to me. Don’t ever force yourself to make a trade.” –Matt Camp
“If you have a great quarterback-receiver combination, you can double up on points and really, really be ahead of the game.” –Tom Krasniqi
“When you’re in week one and you’re freaking out about guys not putting up big numbers— you can’t overreact.” –Matt Camp
“I always get criticized for deals I make, but sometimes you have to take a risk. Sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn’t.” –Aaron Bresky
“Any defense playing the Colts [this season] is a good matchup.” –Tom Krasniqi
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Draft time has long passed, but for future reference, here are some essential drafting “do’s” and “don’ts”.
DO:
· Have draft rankings printed out and by your side for the draft.
· Be cognizant of what type of league you’re in. For instance, points per reception leagues can drastically change the way people draft.
· Plan ahead by drafting the backup for one of your star running backs.
· Pay attention to everyone else’s selections. While you focus on your next pick, see each league member’s tendencies and be aware of who is off the board.
DON’T:
· Draft a defense before round 12 in a 15 or 16 round draft.
· Draft a kicker until the last two or three rounds of a draft.
· Try drafting all sleepers. Pick and choose your spots with a sleeper player, but you still want dependable, go-to guys to fill up the majority of your roster.
· Waste your time on starters who you know won’t produce (a la Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas). Instead, draft players with a lot of upside (Daniel Thomas, James Starks).
· Overload your team with players who share the same bye week.
Daniel Feingold can be reached at dfeingold@spartans.ut.edu.