It’s the most wonderful time of the year.
The time of year where everyone buries there heads in magazines and reads countless articles on the internet, looking for any edge because they want this year to be their year.
It’s about being prepared.
It’s about having a plan.
It’s fantasy football season.
Here are some guys that are being undervalued in drafts and should be on your radar going into your prospective drafts because of upside and increased opportunity:
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: After starting off strong in the first 3 games of the 2010 season (6TD,1INT) Stafford’s season was once again cut short when he injured his throwing shoulder during the latter stages of the Lions Week 3 matchup vs the Bears. Now coming into his third year as an NFL quarterback, and equipped with an improving Lions offensive line and a couple dynamic weapons in WR Calvin Johnson, RB Jahvid Best out of the backfield, and TE Brandon Pettigrew, this could be the year Stafford makes the leap. He’s also had a very impressive preseason.
Kevin Kolb, Arizona Cardinals: After the Eagles spent a 2nd round pick on Kolb in the 09’ draft, he was expected to be Donovan McNabb’s heir in Philly. Now just two short years later they traded him away for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2nd round pick this offseason. Not that the Eagles are hurting at quarterback (they got this guy named Michael Vick). Now Kolb will get a chance this season to be the main guy in an offense that’s led the NFL in pass attempts over the course of the last three seasons, not to mention he gets to throw the ball to perennial Pro-Bowler Larry Fitzgerald.
Running Back
Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys: After playing second fiddle to touchdown vulture Marion Barber the last couple of years, despite obviously being the more explosive player, Jones should finally get his chance to shine in 2011. In his three year NFL career, Jones has averaged a robust 5.3 yards per carry and has never had lower than 80 total yards when he’s received 15 touches in a game. Expect Felix to a have a breakout season in a very good Dallas offense.
Tim Hightower, Washington Redskins: After the Cardinals drafted Virginia Tech running back Ryan Williams in this year’s draft, Hightower became expendable in a backfield that already included the likes of Beanie Wells. After being traded to the Redskins for a 6th round pick, Hightower joined a backfield that already included Ryan Torain, rookie Roy Helu, and pass catching specialist Keiland Williams. Now three games into the preseason, Hightower has been nothing short of impressive thus far (170 YDS, 6.8 YPC) and seems to have run away with the starting RB job in Mike Shanahan’s run-first offense.
Wide Receiver
Mario Manninghamm, New York Giants: A player that started last season as the third option at WR, Manninghamm proved his worth with three straight 100-yard performances and 4 TD’s to end the season after Steve Smith went down with an injury. Now in 2011, Smith has moved on, and Super Mario will be the number two receiver on an Eli Manning led offense that was tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns and top ten in passing yards. Expect at least an 1100 yard season.
Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers: Who’s been the most explosive player this preseason at the WR position? Antonio Brown of course! Alright who are we kidding you probably don’t know who that is. That’s what I’m here for. Brown has lit it up so far this preseason, blowing by corners and even safeties with his 4.35 speed and making big plays on the regular, including touchdown catches of 29, 44, and 77 yards. Big Ben likes to throw it deep, and Brown can go get it. So the only question you have to ask yourself is, what can Brown do for your fantasy football season?
Tight End
Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints: Graham will be the number one tight end in 2011 with the departure of Jeremy Shockey. He’s going to continue to improve in one of the best passing offenses in the NFL led by Drew Brees. Graham was awesome in the second half of last season and possesses the talent to have a breakout season.
Aaron Hernandez, New England Patriots: A wide receiver in a tight end’s body, Hernandez had a great rookie season in 2010 despite the fact that Tom Brady doesn’t exactly love him some tight ends. Expect a huge year from a matchup nightmare in Hernandez.
Look, everyone would love to pick the next Arian Foster late in one of their drafts and ride him to a championship, but if that doesn’t happen, the key to your fantasy football championship may just be to avoid reaching for a few players that lack upside.
Here are some of the players being overvalued in drafts that you should be aware of:
(Average draft position, where they should be taken)
Quarterback
Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles: Look, there’s no denying the guy’s talented and that when he plays he has the chance to single-handedly beat your opponent on any given week. But as a first-round pick? I want a guy with a little less risk. The offensive line is atrocious, and unfortunately it seems like it’s not IF Vick gets hurt this year, it’s WHEN. If he manages to make it to the end of the 2nd round, go ahead and take him, if not, let someone else deal with the 4-6 games Vick will probably miss this year.
Running Back
Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns: The cover-boy of this year’s Madden 12 video game, Hillis exploded onto the scene and shocked the fantasy world by finishing as the #4 RB in all of fantasy football at year’s end. Unfortunately, although he can catch the ball out of the backfield and has some unbelievable athleticism at his disposal, I think you’ll see more of the Hillis from the final five games of last year (60 total YPG, 0TD’s), than the Hillis from the first 11 games of 2010 (over 100 total YPG, 10 TD’s). He’ll have his moments, but he won’t come close to reaching his draft day value.
Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers: Considered by some as a first-round pick in fantasy drafts last year, Mathews finished last year as a full-out bust after an injury-riddled 2010 season. Now going into 2011 drafts, people continue to draft the guy high. Mike Tolbert will eat into his carries once again and will get most, if not all, of the goal-carries this year. Sometimes it’s best to just let go.
Wide Receiver
Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys: A guy who comes directly from the mold of boom-or-bust receivers, Bryant is much too inconsistent in an offense that already has fantasy studs Miles Austin and Jason Witten. He has the tools to blow up at any moment (he’s 6’ 4’’, 225 with 4.4 speed), but he lacks the route running ability of a number one receiver. If he falls out of the top 50, I’ll take a shot at him, but as my number one fantasy WR (which is what he’s being drafted as), not a chance.
Tight End
Mercedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars: Lewis finished last year as fantasy’s number four tight end after bringing in an absurd ten touchdown passes. My concern with him is he managed over 60 yards receiving only three times all year (63, 66, 70). In an offense where the running game is the main component and points are hard to come by, I find it really difficult to draft a guy as my number one tight end, who, because he’s so touchdown reliant, will end up giving me no production from my tight end position most weeks.
Shawn Ferris can be reached at sferris@spartans.ut.edu