2011 MLB Preview

When a 30-pound lighter than 2010 version of C.C. Sabathia delivers the first pitch of the MLB season at Yankee Stadium this Thursday afternoon against the Detroit Tigers, another year filled with dreams of a World Series title will begin for all 30 major league teams. Most are realistic of their chances. Some may be championship contenders, others may be sleeper teams, and others may just be playing for the future, but they all have something in common, and that’s an undefeated record and a glimmer of hope that 2011 will be their year.

Here are my predictions:

A.L. East

1. 1. Boston Red Sox No bias, just facts. Boston finished second in all of baseball last year in runs scored, and that’s without the addition of Carl Crawford (.307, 90RBI, 110R) and Adrian Gonzalez (.298, 31HR, 101RBI), who in San Diego last year had the likes of Will Veneble and Kyle Blanks as protection. That, to go along with a very solid rotation and a deep bullpen, injury’s withstanding, this could just be the Red Sox year in 2011.
2. 2. New York Yankees The Yankees’ rotation goes as follows: CC minus his late night Cap N Crunch cravings, crazy AJ Burnett, Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon? Who they going to bring in if one of those guys go down? Rich Garces? I’d hate to see that staff doing covering-first drills. Let’s face it, though. It’s the Yankees. Jeter will be better, A-Rod will be better and Granderson will be better. Not to mention the amount of activity the Yankees will be involved in this trading deadline. They will spend the money to get the Wildcard in the A.L. this year.
3. 3. Tampa Bay Rays After turning the corner over the past few years, the Rays may have to take a backseat for the next couple years as they were unable to maintain some of the key members of their team due to free agency. Although they still have some good young talent (David Price and Evan Longoria come to mind), the Rays have a better shot at selling out the Trop this year than they do at winning the division. Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon will most likely be nonfactors.
4. 4. Baltimore Orioles I guess the Orioles have had it with the Red Sox and Yankees signing all the free agents every offseason. If Vlad continues to be a threat at the plate, Mark Reynolds launches 40 dingers, Derek Lee bounces back and Justin Duchscherer stays healthy, and combine that with another year of Matt Wieters, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis, this could be a very dangerous team. Now this is obviously a best case scenario, and they’re going to have to bang down walls to win because I think the Ghost of Rick Vaughn is their number three starter, but the O’s could make some noise this year.
5. 5. Toronto Blue Jays Although the Jays finally got rid of the horrid Vernon Wells contract, Jose Bautista would have to hit 75 homeruns this year for them to compete in this division. Brandon Morrow starting the year on the DL won’t help either.

A.L. Central

1. 1. Chicago White Sox After finishing seventh in the major leagues in the homerun department, the White Sox add perennial 40 homer guy Adam Dunn to the middle of the lineup. Konerko won’t be as good as last year (.312, 39HR, 111RBI), but he won’t have to be. After a shaky sophomore season, expect Gordon Beckham to make the leap this year and Carlos Quentin to return to form. The health of Jake Peavy may be the key to their division title hopes.
2. 2. Minnesota Twins The defending division champs, I’m not so sure they repeat that. A few reasons why: Jim Thome can’t keep continuing to turn back the clock, this lineup has no power whatsoever, and Justin Morneau is still battling concussion issues. However, if Morneau can return to form and Mauer can stay healthy, this is a division race that could come down to the wire.
3. 3. Detroit Tigers Depth is not a strong point for the Tigers, so they will rely heavily on the health of their starters. If one of the key components of the lineup is out for any period of time, a la Magglio Ordonez or newly acquired Victor Martinez, this lineup could struggle to score runs and compete with the White Sox and Twins. Miguel Cabrera can’t do it all.
4. 4. Kansas City Royals Name one of the guys that will be in the rotation. Go ahead, name one. Can’t? Didn’t think so. No longer the perennial cellar team in the A.L. Central, they still have a ton of work to do. Former CY Young award winner Zack Greinke’s departure leaves them without a face of the franchise, and let’s hope the Royals can find someone else to put on the front of their programs over the next couple of years. Hopefully they can scrap their way to 75 wins, but even that may be optimistic.
5. 5. Cleveland Indians Oh Cleveland, what happened? Just a few short years removed from being one game away from an A.L. pennant, the road has since been littered with the sound of young stars leaving and the popping of Grady Sizemore’s knee ligaments.

A.L. West

1. 1. Texas Rangers Last year’s surprising A.L. Champions, the loss of Cliff Lee will hurt, but they should have enough bats in the lineup with the acquisition of Adrian Beltre and reigning A.L. MVP Josh Hamilton in the middle of the order to stay in front of any other team in the division. CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis and Scott Feldman will have to have similar numbers from last year as well.
2. 2. Oakland A’s Forget Moneyball Billy Beane, how about you just try to have enough young pitching to win yourself a division? Cahill, Anderson, Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Braden headline the exciting young rotation, but with the health of closer Andrew Bailey in question, and the lack of big bats in the lineup, this team is mostly likely a year or two away from playoff contention.
3. 3. Los Angeles Angels A head-scratcher of an off-season, highlighted by the Vernon Wells deal, they’re probably better than I’m giving them credit for. Maybe a trade for a power hitting third basemen, for example, Aramis Ramirez, would change my mind.
4. 4. Seattle Mariners Besides Ichiro, I think I could put together a more potent lineup off the street than the Mariners will have in 2011.

Wild Card– New York Yankees

N.L. East

1. 1. Philadelphia Phillies Everyone knows about Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels at this point, what they’ve done and what they can do. I’m not disputing that. What I am disputing is the fact that Raul Ibanez is old, Jayson Werth is gone, Jimmy Rollins is still searching for that guy who won the N.L. MVP a few years ago, and Chase Utley might be ready for knee surgery. The N.L. East? Yeah, I’ll give the Phillies that, but I’m not ready to book the parade just yet.
2. 2. Atlanta Braves The Good: With the acquisition of Dan Uggla, the Braves now boast one of the most explosive lineups in the NL. The Bad: half the team has chronic injuries.
3. 3. Florida Marlins They could be as low as fourth in this division or as high as second. Josh Johnson has to stay healthy, Ricky Nolasco has to become the pitcher everyone expects him to be and Chris Coghlan has to get on base (a lot). Expect another huge year from Hanley Ramirez.
4. 4. Washington Nationals I wish Scott Boras could make me look like I’m worth 30 million more than I am. I like this team to finish ahead of the Mets, but that’s it. In a couple years, who knows?
5. 5. New York Mets Poor David Wright. A franchise with a huge payroll and no real direction right now, let’s just hope this team self destructs enough for it to be somewhat entertaining.

N.L. Central

1. 1. St. Louis Cardinals I think this is the year Albert just goes nuts. Write it down, I think he goes Triple Crown on the way to leading the Cardinals to a division title. In a division that tends to include teams that beat up on each other, I see the Cardinals finding a way to win a tight race in the end.
2. 2. Cincinnati Reds What could be your N.L. Wild Card, I still believe this team overachieved last year. With the loss of a veteran leader like Orlando Cabrera to free agency, I believe this team loses a few key games late and loses the division because of it.
3. 3. Milwaukee Brewers Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum. That could just be one of the best trio of starters in baseball. Look for Prince Fielder to challenge for the HR crown in a contract year.
4. 4. Chicago Cubs 101 years and counting, wait….102, wait….103, wait….
5. 5. Houston Astros They were actually one of the better teams in baseball from July 1 -on last year after starting off horribly and getting rid of franchise stars Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt. Look for them to compete in a division race that is up in the air.
6. 6. Pittsburgh Pirates They have young stars like Jose Tabata and Pedro Alvarez, but remember what I said about some teams playing for the future from game one? That’s the Pirates.

N.L. West

1. 1. Colorado Rockies My sleeper pick to take down the Phillies in the playoffs and win the NL pennant, Carlos Gonzalez still has room to grow from his monster year last year (.336, 34HR, 117RBI) and Troy Tulowitzki is one of the best SS in the game. In a lineup that can hit, and hit and hit, watch out for the Rockies in 2011. I also like the addition of Jose Lopez, an extremely solid and underrated second basemen for much of his career.
2. 2. San Francisco Giants Repeat Champs? Maybe not. Playoff contender? Definitely. Tim Lincecum and Pablo Sandoval actually had down years last year, Matt Cain is legit, and the veteran leadership that Miguel Tejada brings could once again put the Giants in title contention.
3. 3. Los Angeles Dodgers This team features some great young stars with Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier in the outfield and lefty stud hurler Clayton Kershaw on the mound, but as far as the “it” factor goes, this team definitely doesn’t have “it”.
4. 4. San Diego Padres How did they finish just a game out of first place last year? This is a bad team, and they just got worse with the departure of Adrian Gonzalez, and Heath Bell should join him in leaving San Diego sometime this summer. Good luck to Mat Latos.
5. 5. Arizona Diamondbacks Daniel Hudson could be a rising star, and Justin Upton already is, but I think it’s going to take more than getting rid of Mark Reynolds 200+ whiffs a year to make this team a contender again.

Wild Card– San Francisco Giants

Shawn Ferris can be reached at sferris@spartans.ut.edu