By Shane Petagna
For the second consecutive year on Feb. 1, Tom Brady retired from football. This time, it’s “for good,” Brady said in a video announcing his decision to step away from the game.
Once again, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter Super Bowl weekend unsure of who their quarterback of the future is.
The Bucs enter the 2023 offseason with more questions than they did in 2022 coming off a much worse season. Tampa Bay finished the regular season at 9-8, winning the terrible NFC South division, and promptly losing in the Wild Card round to the Dallas Cowboys in an uncompetitive game.
The team’s performance resulted in the firing of offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, who called plays for the sixth-worst scoring offense according to NFL.com. The Bucs have yet to hire a new OC as of Feb. 10. On top of that, the only quarterback under contract for the 2023 season is Kyle Trask, a 2020 second-round pick who threw his first regular-season pass in Week 18.
Throughout the entire roster, 24 players will be unrestricted free agents. Brady’s contract will total over $35 million in dead cap space, although Tampa Bay can do some gymnastics to get that amount down.
The Bucs were the only team to finish with a winning record in the NFC South, yet won the division by just two games. Whether they want to continue to compete in a weak division or decide to rebuild, the most realistic options regarding their new starting QB is to sign one in free agency or find one in the draft.
The market for passers is much thinner this time around in the search to replace Brady, but the draft could prove more fruitful.
The Bucs sit in an interesting spot with the 19th pick in the first round. The range of recent mock drafts have as many as four quarterbacks going within the top 10 picks, but Anthony Richardson from Florida is the most likely to fall to Tampa Bay on draft night. Richardson has the size and athletic ability to be a successful dual-threat quarterback in the NFL, but he will need time to develop.
“Richardson, who is 6-4 and 232 pounds, has the strongest arm of the class, too, and he pairs that with game-changing running ability,” said ESPN’s Matt Miller in a Feb. 6 mock draft. “Richardson’s scrambling and rushing abilities differentiate him from the other top QBs in this class,” said NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund in her mock draft 1.0 .
Alabama’s Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud from Ohio State are the consensus top two QB prospects, and Kentucky’s Will Levis is a highly-regarded option as well. Levis has been described as having the best arm strength by other analysts, although interceptions are a concern. Trading up for the Bears No. 1 overall pick to take a QB is a popular option for teams to consider, including the Bucs.
Outside of the draft, Tampa Bay can find a serviceable starting QB in free agency, and it would cost less in terms of assets than other premier quarterbacks that would be available via some sort of trade.
Lamar Jackson would be the best option money could buy, but also the most unlikely out of the free agent class of quarterbacks. Jackson and the Ravens failed to agree on a contract extension during the season as Jackson, but Baltimore wants to keep the 2019 MVP and could easily slap the franchise tag on him if both sides fail to agree on a long-term deal once again.
Another intriguing situation involves four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers. Rodgers is still under contract until at least 2024, but things have gotten rocky as the Packers missed the playoffs for the first time since 2018. Rodgers said he’ll soon go on an “isolation retreat” and hopes to have a decision by the end. Only time will tell what decision Rodgers makes about the 2023 NFL season, but the only certainty is that if he leaves Green Bay it will be via trade.
Derek Carr is arguably the best quarterback available that is moving on from their previous team. After nine seasons with the Raiders, it appears certain that his time is done in Las Vegas. Carr confirmed that he is “choosing to move on and give our next city our best” in a Jan. 21 tweet.
Carr has been selected to the Pro Bowl four times in his career and finished third in MVP voting in 2016, but now is almost certain to join a new team despite signing a four-year contract extension last offseason. His contract includes a full no-trade clause, and he met with the division rival New Orleans Saints on Feb. 8.
The Raiders will have to agree to terms for a trade with a team or cut Carr and let him become a free agent before Feb. 15 to avoid paying him the guaranteed money in his contract for the next two seasons.
In terms of unrestricted free agents, the list of names does not include viable long-term options outside of Jimmy Garoppolo, Geno Smith, and Daniel Jones
Smith won Comeback Player of the Year after starting 17 games for the Seattle Seahawks and told SiriusXM NFL Radio that contract discussions with Seattle are “looking very good.” Jones has only been linked to the New York Giants and the team wants to re-sign him, although his price tag is still up in the air.
For Garoppolo, who was seen as a great fit to be Brady’s successor last season, it makes a lot more sense to come to Tampa Bay now. The San Francisco 49ers used three quarterbacks throughout the regular season and have two quarterbacks still on rookie contracts in Trey Lance and Brock Purdy.
Garoppolo has seemingly been ushered out of San Fran by the strong play of rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, who went 7-1 and led the team to the conference championship. With 2021 3rd overall pick Trey Lance still on his rookie deal, Garoppolo is the odd one out in San Francisco.
Garoppolo has proven he can lead a team, as he’s the only active quarterback with multiple Super Bowl rings from his time serving as the backup to Brady with the New England Patriots. As a starter for the 49ers, he brought them to the Super Bowl in 2019 and two NFC Championship Game appearances.
The new league year officially begins on March 15. If the Bucs don’t sign or make a trade for any of the established NFL quarterbacks listed above, then it can be assured they’ll look to the NFL Draft beginning on Apr. 27.